We’re already at the midway point of the NFL season, and it has been unique – to say the least. Tom Brady doesn’t seem like his young/old self … he’s just old. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers. Some teams you’d never expect are covering the spread seemingly every week, and futures are likely being hammered on two-to-three teams tops. The NFL is ugly this year, but bets are being placed like never before. So the show must go on.

To ensure your pay per head sportsbook finishes the NFL season with a tidy profit, here’s what you need to know for the second half of the season.

Underdogs Rule in the First Half

The first half of the NFL season should be profitable if you managed to set up a good pay per head sportsbook. After Week 7, underdogs have gone 62-45-1 against the spread, that’s 57.9%.

We would suggest making no changes to your odds moving forward as long as you have a good crop of casual bettors. They’ll keep betting on the favorites, and we doubt Vegas will make drastic changes to the odds that will hurt you by the end of the season.

However, make sure you check the players that have been betting your underdog wagers the most. If anyone in your bookie business is profiting off this influx of underdogs, they might be a sharp or wiseguy that could hurt your bottom line all season. Adjust their limits accordingly.

The UNDER Dominated the First-Half Totals

We said the NFL is ugly, and we mean it. Scoring across the 2022 NFL season is down. We’re at the lowest scoring output since 2010, and the totals have gone UNDER nearly 60% of the time. The lack of scoring also affects prop bets, as players who expect their prop picks to score touchdowns are not getting anything close to the totals they expect.
As a bookie, you likely made some good profits on this development. But don’t rest on your laurels. Expect Las Vegas oddsmakers to adjust to these scores, which will affect your totals as the season progresses. For instance, in Week 1, 11 of 16 totals went under. By Week 7, it was 7 of 14.

If you see a lot of UNDERs, leave things as is. If you see a lot of OVERs, perhaps up your totals by a half point.

Packers, Buccanneers Struggles are No Fluke

When the Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady-led teams struggled out the gate in the past, bettors and even oddsmakers waited for that one breakout game to see a winning streak against the spread. We don’t see that happening this year. Brady and Rodgers are old; they can’t carry a lacking squad like they used to, and both squads lack a lot of talent.

Don’t hedge your bets on any expectations of either team turning things around. This is what they are. Although shockingly, you may still have the beware of the Bucs taking the NFC South in NFL futures. That division is so bad they could still win it by default.

Watch Out for More Eagles and Bills Futures Bets

As for the best teams in the NFL, it’s a two-horse race: The Eagles and Bills look like teams best suited to win the Super Bowl. Both have quarterbacks playing elite football while also having impressive players at wideout, running back, and defense.

You might want to check on your future action to see if you might have to lower the limits. Players should keep hammering the Eagles and Bills, as they’re the best teams in the NFC and AFC, respectively, and nobody else is even close. It’s an ugly year in the NFL, and these two stand above the rest.

Beware of the Top Teams Against the Spread

Along with the Bills and Eagles, there are some other top performers against the spread that you should keep track of.

The most surprising you’ll see this year are the Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, and New York Giants. You shouldn’t be that surprised about Dallas and New York. Coming into the season they had the worst strength of schedule in the league, and it’s translated to wins against the spread.

We suggest moving your odds by a half-point or moving your attached monelines a bit to hold off any heavy action on these teams until their play starts to go cold.