One game was controversial, and one was underwhelming, but we’re here. The Super Bowl is set between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Early odds have the Eagles favored by one but it has already moved to -2 in some sportsbooks; the total is 49.5. It makes sense that the Eagles are favored – they’re the more complete team – but they’re not favored by much. Both teams finished with the same 14-3 record, and for everything the Chiefs lack in wide receiver talent and a reliable running game, they have Mahomes, the most dominant QB in football.

For that reason, the -1 opening line is among the smallest in NFL history. Joining Super Bowl VII, Super Bowl XVI, Super Bowl XLIX, and Super Bowl LIV as the matchups with 1.5 spreads or less. The favorite is 3-1 against the spread in those matchups.

What else do pay per head bookies need to know for the upcoming Super Bowl between two closely matched squads? Read more below.

Kansas City Has one of the worst ATS Records This Year

Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ 14-3 record didn’t come easy. Kansas City played down to their competition for most of the season.

They finished the regular season with a 6-10-1 ATS record. That only puts them in front of Indianapolis, Chicago, and Tampa Bay – two bottom-feeders and one one-and-done playoff team.

The Chiefs only covered the spread once as a double-digit favorite (against Seattle), and one of their losses was to the 4-12 Colts.

The good news? They’re 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC.

52% of their Games have Gone Under

The Chiefs and Eagles were first and third in points per game this year. But that didn’t significantly affect their record versus the total. Both teams combined went over the total 18 times and under 20 times, equating to 48% under and 52% over. Remember this when balancing action on the Super Bowl total, your players will want to bet the over on this matchup. Still, oddsmakers will ensure the total is balanced enough for the total gets as close to the final score as possible. And two, bettors will still feed into human nature and lean on the over. You may need to adjust your odds to compensate. In the end, balanced action is best.

Hurts and Mahomes Faced Off in 2021

Though both these QBs are still in their 20s and play in opposite conferences, they have met before. In 2021 the Chiefs met the Eagles on October 3rd, and it was a shootout.

Mahomes had five touchdowns with one interception in a 42-30 win over Philly. Hurts had one of his best games up to that point, with 387 passing yards, two TDs, and 47 rushing yards in the loss. Devonta Smith was able to light up the Chiefs’ secondary for 122 receiving yards.

Tyreek Hill was the only Chiefs receiver that could dent the Eagles secondary with 186 yards, but he’s no longer on the team.

Overall, a great performance by both teams. Though the Chiefs won by 12, Hill is no longer on the squad, and Philly’s defense has improved since.

Travis Kelce has been the only Consistent Playoff Performer

While the best teams are in the Super Bowl, consistency from the skill positions has been lacking. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith were not really needed in both Eagles matchups, while the Chiefs receiving core and running backs have been inconsistent. The only consistent performer has been tight end Travis Kelce. Keep a close eye on his total to ensure there’s a good balanced prop for the superstar tight end.

Haason Reddick and Chris Jones Have been Lighting Up the Playoffs

Usually, offering a sack total bet is easy money for the under, but that may not be the case this year.

On the way to the Super Bowl, two of the best pass rushers in the NFL have been eating up quarterbacks.

Chris Jones, made up for only one total tackle against Jacksonville by posting two sacks, one tackle for loss, and one assist against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship. Jones may have more trouble eating against the Eagles offensive line, Hurts was only sacked twice in the playoffs.

That said, Eagles defensive end Haason Reddick has faired better. He had 1.5 sacks with five total tackles against the Giants and two sacks with three total tackles against the San Francisco 49ers. With Mahomes nursing a bad ankle, we suspect bettors will like the over in any Reddick prop, so bookies should adjust accordingly.