If you haven’t experienced it already, you should know that while potentially lucrative, an NFL season has a lot of ups and downs.
It’s simply impossible to avoid seasons where your NFL lines are offside. There are going to be moments or even weekends when you might lose some money.
But that doesn’t mean you rest on your laurels and hope for the best next week. Instead, it would help if you made adjustments to ensure you’re at least making a profit from the juice.
Here are some tips that pay per head bookies should look out for.
Check for Sharps
The first thing you should watch out for is whether or not you’ve got a crop of sharp players taking advantage of your sportsbook. This could be the case, especially if you’re new. Did a new player with experience suddenly refer a bunch of new NFL bettors to your product? We’d watch out for some key indicators that may be sharp bettors.
You may see these bettors leaning on underdog wagers more often than not. Sharp bettors don’t think about straight up wins and losses. They understand the spread and understand underdogs cover just as much as favorites. If you see an influx of underdog bets, you may have some sharps in your midst.
Sharps tend to bet well before or very close to kickoff. They understand when a weak line has been posted and attack the odds before the action shifts things, or they wait until the final moment to bet on the favorite or underdog line.
They’ll bet on both sides. If there’s a significant shift in your odds, a savvy bookie believes they know the key number in a spread and will wait for extreme line moves and bet on both sides.
If you have sharps in your midst, we suggest hedging your underdog odds by half a point once they’re released. Also, do your best to release your odds as late as possible versus the competition. It’ll help you evaluate the line movements before sharps can get a hold of your sportsbook.
Beware of Sharps and Props Too
Do you think sharps just bet on the spread and total? Think again. Sharps bet on props as well.
Here’s a little inside scoop all online bookies know in the industry: Oddsmakers who create odds and props tend to open accounts with the competition to find mistakes in prop betting. They’ll exploit a sportsbook until their account is shut down, then use the account of their next higher.
How do they do it? They focus on props that they are specifically knowledgeable about and look for wholes in the competition. Keep an eye on player accounts that seem to consistently earn prop wins very close to the number. Those guys may be sharp bookies themselves.
Check for Player Trends
Keep in mind that just because you have a group of winning NFL bettors, it doesn’t mean they’re sharps. It may just mean they have a favorite type of bet or method for NFL Sundays.
Sites like PayPerHead.com, PerHead.com, and BossAction.com allow you to see every single one of your pay per head players’ profiles and change the odds you see fit.
Notice you have a lot of players from Detroit, Michigan? Maybe you need to shift the odds slightly against all Detroit Lions’ bets. Or if you notice your group of players hammer any game involving Tom Brady, be sure to pay special attention to Tampa Bay moving lines and moneylines.
Understand the trends of where and how your players like to bet and adjust accordingly.
Lower Your Limits
If you notice your Sunday wins are being wiped away by a couple of big bets, maybe it’s time to lower your limits. Even the biggest sportsbooks put a cap on how much action they’ll take on a single game.
With pay per head software, you’re the boss of your very own sportsbook. You make the rules. Don’t take $5,000 bets just because a player asks. Take bet amounts that you can safely control. Allow Vegas to get hit by $100,000 wagers. If you have a good average from your wagers, you’ll notice it’s a lot easier to take losses.
Don’t Worry About Parlays
Huge parlay hits can strike fear into any bookie when they hit. But we say, don’t change a thing.
Parlays, for the most part, will be one of the most lucrative bets you have in your pay per head sportsbook. Nearly all of your players will place at least a couple per year, as the odds are just too enticing.
However, there will be times when big parlays hit. Sometimes they’ll be in the thousands. But trust us when we say those moments will be few and far between. For the most part, you’ll always come out on top when your players hammer NFL parlays. So don’t panic. Ensure your parlay limits are fair but realistic, and watch how parlays pay off long term.
Just like a rookie hitting an NFL field for the first time, recognize that NFL bookmaking is a marathon, not a sprint. Make proper adjustments during the season, but ultimately, these odds were created by some of the best minds in Vegas. Often, these odds only occasionally need a small tweak of a half-point or some extra juice, and you’ll have all the paydays you need.